'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
Asia's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, signed off an address to employees last week by assuring them that 2024 would be better than 2023 for both Reliance Industries and India. Ambani isn't an exception. Promoters and their representatives from several other conglomerates have expressed similar optimism.
There have been growing global concerns over China's sweeping claims of sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, a huge source of hydrocarbons.
Agriculture activity, according to recent channel checks by Prabhudas Lilladher, is expected to continue at a strong pace in FY22.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
Retail inflation slowed to 4.29 per cent in April from 5.52 per cent in March, mainly due to easing food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank mainly factors in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) while arriving at its monetary policy. As per the data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, inflation in the food basket was 2.02 per cent in April, down from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month.
Addressing an event in New Delhi, Gen Pande also said the recent global developments have underscored that the security of the nation can neither be outsourced nor be dependent on the largesse of others.
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
The IMF on Tuesday cut India's economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year, with its chief economist Gita Gopinath saying that the slight downgrade is mainly due to the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant. "If you look at the 2021-22 fiscal year, we have a slight downgrade of -0.5 percentage points and for the next fiscal year 2022-23 we have a slight upgrade of 0.5 percentage points. So, growth for the previous fiscal year is now nine per cent and for this year now is at nine per cent. We moved it up slightly," Gopinath told reporters during a news conference in Washington. In its latest update of World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund has cut India's economic growth forecast to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 31, joining a host of agencies which have downgraded their projections on concerns over the impact of the spread of Omicron on business activity and mobility.
The exclusive club that dominates the global semiconductor fab scenario is about to get a new member. Taiwan, South Korea, and China control nearly 70 per cent of the global capacity. SEMI, the global industry body for semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing, projects all fabs collectively will churn out 30 million wafers a month this year.
Modi said New Delhi has emphasised on dialogue and diplomacy along with restraint to deal with the situation arising out of the Hamas-Israel conflict.
The economic impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 on emerging economies will depend on a mix of government restrictions, public comfort with social interactions, and capacity of governments and central banks to provide additional policy support to the private sector, Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday. The emergence of the new variant poses new risks to the global economic growth and inflation outlook, as concerns mount about the variant's health risks and several countries have imposed new travel restrictions in recent days. These restrictions will likely increase over the coming weeks until scientists learn more about the variant, it said.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
In days of smart, networked technology and no shame over collateral damage, what will blow up next -- cars, mobile phones, TV sets, refrigerators? And where?, asks Shyam G Menon.
Emphasising the importance of sustaining food and energy security, the G20 leaders called for the "cessation of military destruction or other attacks on relevant infrastructure".
The broader NSE Nifty, after cracking the 10,600-mark, ended 82.30 points, or 0.77 per cent, lower at 10,589.10.
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
India's factory output climbed 22.4 per cent in March, benefiting from the base effect of the lockdown-marred month a year back as well as a turnaround in the manufacturing sector, while retail inflation slipped to a three-month low of 4.29 per cent in April. The high positive annual growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) in March 2021 came on back of a contraction of (-)0.9 per cent and (-)3.4 per cent in January and February 2021 respectively, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This turnaround was led by recovery in the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors.
The defence minister also took an indirect dig at Gandhi for "doubting" the government's intention in the handling of the border row with China and said politics can not be done on the basis of "falsehood".
'We have lived through 10% plus inflation in India and we are aware of the economic pitfall.' 'With the RBI now having formally adopted an inflation target range, they cannot turn a blind eye to the impending risks.'
The importance of China as India's top trading partner cannot be understated.
India's growth projection released by the latest World Economic Outlook remains unchanged from its previous WEO (World Economic Outlook) update of July this summer but is a three-percentage point in 2021 and 1.6 percentage point drop from its April projections. According to the latest WEO update, released ahead of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the world is expected to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022.
US firm Mylan NV received a stern warning from the FDA in August for faulty manufacturing practices at three of its India drugmaking plants.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
India must integrate more with East Asia by getting into regional trade arrangements, lower its tariff walls, and improve the quality of its workforce, suggests T N Ninan.
In the last nine sessions, the Sensex had lost 1,940.73 points and the Nifty has given away nearly 600 points.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
'Indices will remain range bound in 2022 as earnings catch up with the current multiples.'
India and the US had on July 17 signed a preliminary agreement for cooperating on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile.
'Internet, healthcare and life insurance are a few sectors which offer solid long-term decadal potential.'
UN economists announced a likely USD 50 billion drop in the worldwide manufacturing exports in February alone as the extent of the damage to the global economy caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) moved further into focus. Citing the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), Pamela Coke-Hamilton, who heads UNCTAD's Division on International Trade and Commodities, said that it had fallen to 37.5 -- a drop of about 20 points -- the lowest reading since 2004. "This also correlates directly to exports and also implies a two per cent drop in overall exports," she said, with a resulting "ripple effect" worldwide "to the tune of a USD 50 billion fall in exports."
Some investors warned of a coming British or even global recession as sterling collapsed to hit its lowest since 1985.
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
The annual threat assessment of the US Intelligence Community released by the Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) also said that the 'expanded military posture by both India and China along the disputed border elevates the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests and calls for US intervention'.
Make no mistake, Reliance's entry into Indian e-commerce cannot be taken lightly. It is akin to a combine of AT&T and Wal-Mart challenging Amazon on its home turf, says Shailesh Dobhal.
'In terms of semiconductors, challenges do remain in the pan industry, but I think we are much better than where we were a year or so back.'
'Investors should keep them on their radar and invest over a longer time frame, and expect some of these companies to bite the dust.'
Brent hit a session high of $114.69 a barrel, its loftiest since September last year.
'It is building the country's infrastructure, and delivering it very efficiently.'
